The lindy effect is a theory that states that the life expectancy of non-perishable artifacts, such as works of arts, technologies or academic output is proportional to the amount of time they've been in existence.
This partially explains why some cultural products or traditions have been around for a long time, as the longer they "live" the longer they are expected to stick around. Wine, meditation and yoga are great examples of this.
This is also why we should as a culture, approach the newest app, technology or gizmo with a healthy dose of skepticism. Ultimately, we are better off observing how a new artifact fares in the cultural landscape for a while and gauge its potential for survival accordingly instead of taking its creator word on the fact that it's the "next big thing".
It is very evident in children's toys: most of them are seasonal fads that are nothing but a short-term attempt at making a lot of cash before letting it die. Conversely a few toys have been around for comparatively long times, like Jenga or Lego. I'd bet that since Legos have been around for 70+ years, we can expect to see them around for another 70+ years. That can't be said for fidget spinners, one of the most useless inventions known to man.
This is why I am personally much more inclined to listen to a meditation teacher telling me to meditate 2 hours a day in order to maintain my mental sanity, than listen to a doctor prescribing me a drug that was just approved by the FDA and is the supposed ultimate cure for anxiety and depression. The meditation practice has been around for 2,500 years, so it is likely that it will still be around in 2,500 or maybe even 5,000 years, which is difficult to imagine for the drug.
It's a good life heuristic to deal only in old things as much as one can. What do you think? How would that apply to the architecture discipline?
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